We've all seen the picture.
It's clever. In a comparative analysis with, say, gas prices 5 years ago, it's probably close to true. But here's the thing, folks. Oil is cheap. It's dirt cheap. Until it starts to run out. I don't want to feed some mindless liberal frenzy and imply that the concern is physically depleting all the world's supply of oil. The key word is
starts. Crude oil discovery peaked in the 1960's. (
Richard Reese) That means that since about 1962, the rate of discovery of new oil has been in steady decline. In the meantime, oil production, that is, the production (a function of demand, for the economically challenged) has increased on an exponential curve. As the demand for oil increases, mounting pressure on oil producers suffering from a visibly diminishing supply drives oil prices up. It's a response designed to slow demand to keep consumption in line with supply. This is a relatively simple concept. I don't feel like I've enlightened anybody.
So let's continue. There are two distinct facets of this situation I'd like to examine. The first is the relationship between an exponentially increasing demand for oil and a curiously coinciding exponential population growth since around 1940. (
Population Reference Bureau) What do you suppose is going on here? The relationship is symbiotic. The mechanical capabilities derived from the dawn of oil as fuel have created a world capable of sustaining exponentially more people. We've built a society and almost all social structures therein on the presumption that oil would continue to fuel our system. Of course it can't do that forever. I'm not the kind of person that cries disaster, but this situation certainly has the potential. As our ability to sustain this population thrust levels out and starts to decline, we're faced with one of two consequent situations. The first and more gruesome alternative involves releveling global population to maintain a healthy supply-demand relationship with oil. Of course, even with a healthy dose of death, this solution could only ever be temporary. How many people would we be willing to expend before we were forced to choose another solution? The more relevant question, I think, would be what kind (read: nationality, social class.....) of people would we be willing to expend before we caved in.... But let's leave this alternative to pure hypothesis and credit the human race with a better collective mind than that (I'm laughing with you, not at you, I swear....) Eventually, the elusive "alternate fuel source" will need to become our
primary fuel source.
This leads me to the second facet of our situation. Getting back to the price of gas. Our world, like it or not, is more or less run by a capitalist machine. The machine is sensitive to few things: supply vs. demand, cost vs. benefit, ethical vs. profitable..... (ok, not so much...) We've already talked about supply and demand with regards to oil. What I want to look at now is the cost vs. benefit analysis companies entertain when deciding what to do about oil. As long as the cost of the (process of) depletion of the world's supply of oil does not outweigh the benefits of exploding said oil to propel products from point A to point B, these companies will (11 times out of 10) not think twice about changing the pace, switching up the game plan. Enter "arm", "leg", and "first-born"-priced gasoline. People are complaining. Then people are buying less gas. Many of these people are laffable to me, because I hear them claim to be helping to protect our oil supply, but 100-1 says gas prices drop to $1.50 a gallon they'll be driving the motor homes to sunny San Francisco and back as often as Saturday. This is why gas prices can't drop ever again. They need to steadily (slowly's ok, too fast and you cripple economies.... not desirable either) increase. In stride, the pressure on consumers to decrease consumption (the driving force behind demand) will increase. Other effects will ripple down. The price of goods will increase since transportation costs will increase. Economic stimulus will be a rarity since people will have less to spend. Suddenly, corporate demand decreases with fewer goods coming out of production. Now the costs outweigh the benefits. In times like these, Research and Development departments the world over get frantic calls from CEO's and Board members to the effect of "Find us this damned altermenant fuel or whatever nonsense it's called!" And that, my good friends, is when we free ourselves from our dependence on oil.
It's a hard, fast bullet to bite, but it's one our parents and their parents felt we could handle, or perhaps didn't see coming (again to the credit of mankind, something I'm not always comfortable conceding). Or, you know, we could take plan A and kill everybody (you know, in Africa, Asia, and everyone in the Middle East that's not Israel... maybe parts of South America too... nobody in Europe or North America, though.... except Canada.) Ok.... Clearly I've gone on for too long.... I hope I've made sense, and I hope you don't realize how offensive any of this was.... err..... I hope I haven't offended any of you. Have at it, folks. Ohhh... and let me just put something in perspective for you in closing. It's a good thing the world isn't powered by Scope.
- Diet Snapple 16 oz $1.29 ............ $10.32 per gallon
- Lipton Ice Tea 16 oz $1.19 .........$9.52 per gallon
- Gatorade 20 oz $1.59 ................. $10.17 per gallon
- Ocean Spray 16 oz $1.25 ........... $10.00 per gallon
- Brake Fluid 12 oz $3.15 ............. $33.60 per gallon
- Vick's Nyquil 6 oz $8.35 ............ $178.13 per gallon
- Pepto Bismol 4 oz $3.85 ............ $123.20 per gallon
- Whiteout 7 oz $1.39 ................... $25.42 per gallon
- Scope 1.5 oz $0.99 ..................... $84.48 per gallon
- Evian water 9 oz $1.49................$21.19 per gallon
